Squad Status: 2023/24 Season

[Chelsea_Matt]

3 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

One is a load of shit - I'll give you that.  it is hand waving numbers based on nothing.  The other is extremely useful.

Maybe it is me.  I spent 5 years of my life as an investment analyst looking at historic full sets of accounts and trying to understand the underlying cost structure and use that to predict future cost structures, in the way that Spotrac pretends to or your money guy claims.  For those 5 years I heard an awful lot of CFOs speaking to investor conferences about their targets.

I have also spent 40-50 hours of my life trying to build Machine Learning models (trivially simple compared to xG but conceptually similar).

So to me when I hear bull shit about Chelsea's wage bill falling by £80m I just assume anyone can see it is made up numbers.
And when I hear people thinking xG is meaningless I just wonder who are they?

Okay Droy. I’ll leave you to your analytics. In the nicest way you remind me of Professor Brown from the best 80s film ever - Back To The Future! 🤩💙

[chara]

👨‍💻

5 hours ago, Chelsea_Matt said:

What’s hilarious is how some people look at xG when we lose and then say that we basically won. I bet it’s how the shitshow Chelsea sporting directors analyse players and matches. 🤡 🌍 

Voicing my thoughts,,,the desperate last ditch attempt to fend off Monday morning onslaughts at work after losing to a hated rival...all in vain as we all well know but an attempt to go down fighting!,,,,,,the "We should have had three goals on chances"..yadda yadda....

@Sciatika makes the usual sensible observation regarding confirmation of issues but as sagely pointed out..we can see the reality and stats can help reinforce the points..BUT THEY ARE NOT THE POINT!,,that is where I give up,

Edited January 1, 2024 by chara

[Chelsea_Matt]

21 minutes ago, chara said:

👨‍💻

Voicing my thoughts,,,the desperate last ditch attempt to fend off Monday morning onslaughts at work after losing to a hated rival...all in vain as we all well know but an attempt to go down fighting!,,,,,,the "We should have had three goals on chances"..yadda yadda....

@Sciatika makes the usual sensible observation regarding confirmation of issues but as sagely pointed out..we can see the reality and stats can help reinforce the points..BUT THEY ARE NOT THE POINT!,,that is where I give up,

Football at its core is a simple game. As da Vinci said - simplicity is sophistication. 

Ball + net = win. 

[Dwmh]

3 minutes ago, Chelsea_Matt said:

Football at its core is a simple game. As da Vinci said - simplicity is sophistication. 

Ball + net = win. 

So why does anyone post on a match forum?  Unless it is to discuss things like whether the result matched the effort of the players or the chances created.  If we win 2-0 can we still congratulate our keeper for saving an irrelevant penalty?  Why is football interesting?  Why not just have 2 captains toss a coin and all go home?

But if I were able to ban any particular type of talk on the site it would be "I don't need stats to tell me if we played well or badly because "I" simply know and won't be told different".

[Not you, Matt]

[Chelsea_Matt]

2 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

So why does anyone post on a match forum?  Unless it is to discuss things like whether the result matched the effort of the players or the chances created.  If we win 2-0 can we still congratulate our keeper for saving an irrelevant penalty?  Why is football interesting?  Why not just have 2 captains toss a coin and all go home?

But if I were able to ban any particular type of talk on the site it would be "I don't need stats to tell me if we played well or badly because "I" simply know and won't be told different".

[Not you, Matt]

Just my opinion - I’m not deriding others or denying their right to their own. I just find over-analysis unnecessary. Others enjoy it. Live and let live. Each to their own. 🫶🏻

[chara]

2 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

So why does anyone post on a match forum?  Unless it is to discuss things like whether the result matched the effort of the players or the chances created.  If we win 2-0 can we still congratulate our keeper for saving an irrelevant penalty?  Why is football interesting?  Why not just have 2 captains toss a coin and all go home?

But if I were able to ban any particular type of talk on the site it would be "I don't need stats to tell me if we played well or badly because "I" simply know and won't be told different".

[Not you, Matt]

All part of the mix!.....stats are of "interest" but if I ,for example, watch Werner fail to score week after week I don't need stats to tell me why....must be the unluckiest player ever in the amount of worldy saves last ditch blocks etc not explained by stats... not to excuse his lack of goals more to illustrate how stats are just that  not the reality of real time...not a defence of Werner or a discussion on him..could have used other players but he is an easy example if over generlised...Kalou anyone?

[chara]

8 hours ago, Chelsea_Matt said:

What’s hilarious is how some people look at xG when we lose and then say that we basically won. I bet it’s how the shitshow Chelsea sporting directors analyse players and matches. 🤡 🌍 

Sorry to use your quote twice Matt but maybe a (another) clue to the "mindset"of the "Powers"...this weekend Denver Broncos won but missed the play offs for Super Bowl...but that is all they missed...no financial disaster like relegation and after a middling season( following a disastrous opening sequence) but not an overwhelming one many stats are being trotted out for constant analysis on local and, I expect, National TV. All just waffle and padding out the Media presence (jobsworth input) ...the fans in Denver KNOW what the issues were (are) much as we Chelsea faithful (and elsewhere) understand the issues at SB..stats will not improve the position in the league and if any real sports fan needs stats to show the way then he/she ain't a fan and should stick to tiddlywinks!

[xceleryx]

Man, this isn't a good look at all. 

[Dwmh]

34 minutes ago, xceleryx said:

Man, this isn't a good look at all. 

Madueke looks fine with it.  Who are you worried about?  Mrs Chilwell?

[xceleryx]

34 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

Madueke looks fine with it.  Who are you worried about?  Mrs Chilwell?

Was being sarcastic, since the narrative being thrown around was Poch not liking Noni and freezing him out. 

Next time I'll include the "/s".

[Sabrina F.]

A lot can be said about Pochettino, but he's clearly excellent man managing both young players and stars. Madueke seems happy. It's not like Madueke went from starter to bench player, both Potter & Lampard also wouldn't play him much. He was a starter at the Euros U21 but finished the competition on the bench ... replaced by the emergence of Cole Palmer.

About xG, it tells a consistent story with the eye test, frankly. Chelsea have been around the 4th to 6th best team in the league, have been almost in every game, including being the equal or better side in games against the (real) Top 3 of the league - (this is reflected by the stat that we have not been down at HT yet) - Liverpool, Arsenal, City - but have not capitalized on chances created. IMO that's a feature of the squad built, the moment Nkunku went down in Chicago, the team lost its most reliable, experienced, probably only elite finisher, and the team was left with one single fit striker, a promising 22yo playing his 2nd full pro season in a new, superior league. 

xG also says defensively, things have been shaky. A strong start to the season where the team was organized but conceded on mistakes, and in the recent 5-10 games, just straight up a bad defensive team that's also still making loads of mistakes. 2nd in xG for (first before yesterday's Liverpool historic xG blitz of Newcastle) but midtable-ish in xG against. 

xG for set-pieces conceded is also pretty bad and think everyone has pretty much seen that we're in fact awful at defending set-pieces (don't think xG captures the second phase of set-pieces where the ball comes back and the cross in results in a lot of chances conceded, we'd probably be bottom in the league with that).

 

All in all, this is fairly consistent with Pochettino (direct football that creates chances but concedes loads of them when control is lacking) and with a club that has embarked one of the most radical squad turnovers ever seen at this level, a club that's still shuffling people in performance & medical departments, with a squad that's too big, too injured, too young all at once.

 

 

 

 

[chara]

4 hours ago, Sabrina F. said:

A lot can be said about Pochettino, but he's clearly excellent man managing both young players and stars. Madueke seems happy. It's not like Madueke went from starter to bench player, both Potter & Lampard also wouldn't play him much. He was a starter at the Euros U21 but finished the competition on the bench ... replaced by the emergence of Cole Palmer.

About xG, it tells a consistent story with the eye test, frankly. Chelsea have been around the 4th to 6th best team in the league, have been almost in every game, including being the equal or better side in games against the (real) Top 3 of the league - (this is reflected by the stat that we have not been down at HT yet) - Liverpool, Arsenal, City - but have not capitalized on chances created. IMO that's a feature of the squad built, the moment Nkunku went down in Chicago, the team lost its most reliable, experienced, probably only elite finisher, and the team was left with one single fit striker, a promising 22yo playing his 2nd full pro season in a new, superior league. 

xG also says defensively, things have been shaky. A strong start to the season where the team was organized but conceded on mistakes, and in the recent 5-10 games, just straight up a bad defensive team that's also still making loads of mistakes. 2nd in xG for (first before yesterday's Liverpool historic xG blitz of Newcastle) but midtable-ish in xG against. 

xG for set-pieces conceded is also pretty bad and think everyone has pretty much seen that we're in fact awful at defending set-pieces (don't think xG captures the second phase of set-pieces where the ball comes back and the cross in results in a lot of chances conceded, we'd probably be bottom in the league with that).

 

All in all, this is fairly consistent with Pochettino (direct football that creates chances but concedes loads of them when control is lacking) and with a club that has embarked one of the most radical squad turnovers ever seen at this level, a club that's still shuffling people in performance & medical departments, with a squad that's too big, too injured, too young all at once.

 

 

 

 

Welcome to cfcnet...very impressive first post,,,basically confirming the arguments for both "sides" of the stats "discussion.!..for me you very eloquently took the facts to prove the stats, not a criticism , quite the reverse..as you say..THE EYE TEST.

The last line..absolutely spot on.

 

 

[My Blood Is Blue]

https://www.chelseafc.com/en/news/article/gilchrist-my-dream-came-true-but-now-i-want-more
 

Keep this lad at the club, please. I love his mentality and passion.

[Ham]

😂

[chara]

4 hours ago, Ham said:

😂

Go to your room Ham!,,,you should be ashamed of that😍

[boratsbrother]

You don't see a runner with the body of a 100 m sprinter taking part in 5000 m races. This is what James is effectively doing.

He's naturally a big guy and there's obviously  nothing he can do about that, but I'm convinced he'd suffer fewer injuries if he lost a stone or so of  muscle and gained some body fat. That would loosen up his very tight,  hard, looking body.

[Dwmh]

14 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

You don't see a runner with the body of a 100 m sprinter taking part in 5000 m races. This is what James is effectively doing.

He's naturally a big guy and there's obviously  nothing he can do about that, but I'm convinced he'd suffer fewer injuries if he lost a stone or so of  muscle and gained some body fat. That would loosen up his very tight,  hard, looking body.

Lukaku Mk 1

[Ham]

28 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

Lukaku Mk 1

His biggest problem is his attitude, not his weight. 

I wouldn't put them in the same category for anything. 

[Bison]

9 hours ago, boratsbrother said:

You don't see a runner with the body of a 100 m sprinter taking part in 5000 m races. This is what James is effectively doing.

He's naturally a big guy and there's obviously  nothing he can do about that, but I'm convinced he'd suffer fewer injuries if he lost a stone or so of  muscle and gained some body fat. That would loosen up his very tight,  hard, looking body.

 

 

[My Blood Is Blue]

It feels risky doing this the day after the night before, but I wanted to have a look at our current squad and what I feel should happen with each of them before next season (Keep, Sell, Loan), to try and start getting an idea of how close we may or may not be to having a squad capable of fighting for top 6 next season.

Sanchez - SELL
Bettinelli - KEEP
Petrovic - KEEP

James - KEEP
Gusto - KEEP
Chilwell - KEEP
Cucurella - SELL
Disasi - KEEP
Silva - RELEASE
Badiashile - SELL
Chalobah - KEEP
Colwill - KEEP
Fofana - KEEP
Gilchrist - LOAN

Enzo - KEEP
Ugochukwu - LOAN
Chukwuemeka - KEEP
Gallagher - KEEP
Caicedo - KEEP
Casadei - LOAN
Lavia - KEEP
Santos - LOAN

Sterling - KEEP
Mudryk - LOAN
Madueke - KEEP
Palmer - KEEP
Nkunku - KEEP
Jackson - KEEP
Broja - SELL
Washington - LOAN

Based on the above it would leave us with a squad of:

2GKs
3FBs
4CBs
5CMs
4 AMs
1STK

Total - 19 players

We'd need to sign a solid backup GK, a genuine option at LB to compete with Chilwell, a quality and experienced CB, a goalscoring and experienced AM and 1 elite/top-class striker who actually knows how to score and that would take us to 24 and I think enough to be able to compete for a top 6 place.

My shopping list would be:

Dean Henderson
Alex Grimaldo
Sven Botman
Jarrod Bowen
Ollie Watkins/Lois Openda

[Guest mrsm81]

So much debate about management and performance . Thought a worthwhile exercise would be to reassess the squad . 

Nor a space for which we should sign, just judging who we have. Started gk/def 

 

Gk
Sanchez. 20m for what?
Petrovic, nothing special but safe

Df
Disasi, useful squad player,  versatile 
Cucumber,  nice player,  tidy,  would've been a good 15m back up
Reece - will he ever be fit? Not worthy of the Armband 
Bads- jury is out,  looks amazing at times and a weakness in others
Chilly- I'd sell for a decent fee. If not he's a solid lefty for us 
Trevor- thought he was OK tbf. We haven't got to sell everyone.
Sarr, mistake get rid 
Gusto - nice talent. Rid ourselves of cuc or chilly
Fofana, fancy as a cb, but will he ever be fit. Silva successor 

[Ham]

Chelsea against the big boys Vs Chelsea against the rest;

[My Blood Is Blue]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3Hv6R_MdOm/?igsh=d24wdHZic2VzZTZ5
 

Some lovely passes in this video, the last clip is a random one to include though.

[paulw66]

On 09/02/2024 at 09:17, My Blood Is Blue said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3Hv6R_MdOm/?igsh=d24wdHZic2VzZTZ5
 

Some lovely passes in this video, the last clip is a random one to include though.

History will prove that those two midfielders were excellent signings. 

[Sciatika]

@Ham, I suspect he will play Disasi rather than Badiashilein in your second lineup and, possibly, Disasi instead of Silva in your first.