The ROTG Challenge

[My Blood Is Blue]

@ROTG has set out the challenge, he believes over our next 11 league fixtures (listed below) we will get a total of 21 points (everthe optimist that he is!), so what do you think?

Leicester City v Chelsea
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Southampton v Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea
Chelsea v Brentford
Everton v Chelsea
Chelsea v Fulham
Ipswich Town v Chelsea
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
Chelsea v Bournemouth
Chelsea v Wolves

Voting will NOT be anonymous and will close the day before the Leicester game.

[paulw66]

No option for zero? I guess not needed now Bison has stopped posting. 

[ROTG]

For  @My Blood Is Blue hard work on putting together this challenge 

Over the next 11 matches:

25-30 pts - I will donate £50 to the website

over 30 pts I will donate £100 to the website, order and eat humble pie

Less than 25pts - i'll donate face painting kits, red noses, baggy clothes and size 30 shoes, to those who predicted the team will get more than 24 pts 😀

ROTG

Edited November 15 by ROTG

[chara]

@ROTG....👏👏👏...Bravo Sir !

@My Blood Is Blue...Ditto !

Over 25 pts but less than 30 pts and Over 30 pts.

When my Financial Adviser returns from UK today (and I leave  the Stone Age)

I will donate a sum in either case to be determined by "The Chancellor " (HWMBO) at Chez Chara.

Edited November 15 by chara

[martin1905]

I don't like predicting points, I think it's all relative to how many your rivals get but this whole debate started with me and ROTG who for some reason wants to keep comparing us to how we were under Poch. 

The reason I dont like predicting points is that every season is different.  I'd rather finish the same as last season on 62 points, if thats enough for top 4, instaed of bettering that but finishing outside so the number of points we will need will be relative to what others achieve and the same goes for these next 11 games. I posted, in the Leicester thread some of our rivals fixtures in the same period...............

23 hours ago, martin1905 said:

In that same period;

Liverpool play, City, Fulham, Forest, Newcastle, Everton, Tottenham and United.

City play Tottenham, Liverpool,  United and Villa.

Arsenal play United, Tottenham, Villa and Brighton.

Villa play Chelsea, Forest, City, Newcastle, Arsenal and  Brighton.

Tottenham play City, Fulham, Chelsea, Liverpool,  Forest, Newcastle and Arsenal.

United play Arsenal, Forest,  City, Newcastle, Liverpool,  Brighton.

 

 

There's going to be a lot of dropped points in the next 11 games, for everyone. Also I don't see anyone getting 90+ points this season and it's difficult to predict what will be enough to finish 4th, possibly lower than normal but the average for the last 10 years is 72.

For those unaware at this stage last season we were 10th on 15 points 

After 22 games we had 31 points and were still 10th. Apparently the tactical genius only needs two more wins than poch achieved with the Dolly mixtures and we will be fine so by that standard 17 points would acheive this but we did have  a good end to last season, in terms of results.

We got 32 points in our last 16 games and to be fair it will be difficult to better that. 68 points is ROTG's magical number. If we averaged 1.5 ppg for our last 16 games, which is pretty easy, we currently average 1.72ppg, we would need to end this run on 44 points to hit that target so 25 is the goal. The only problem with that is it would mean an average of nearly 2.3 ppg which would be title winning form. If we do achieve that, with only 16 games remaining we would probably be in with a shout of winning the league, especially when you look at who everyone else is playing. Liverpool for example have 6 of the top 10 and Everton in these next 11 games. 

To summarise I think I've been fair with the last 16 games and averaging 1.5ppg, which I think is more than achievable so 25 in the next 11 should be enough. 

Unless of course ROTG is wrong, who'd have thought, and his target of 2 more wins doesn't add up. 

[martin1905]

It's easy to look at those fixtures and say we should get 25 plus points. That 2.3 ppg or more is title winning form. We haven't averaged that, throughout a whole season since Conte. We've only managed more than 2ppg once in 15 years although I'm sure there been periods, similar to this where we have done it, for an amount of games.

I suppose it says an awful lot about the new manager. The gruesome twosome, the squad they have put together and all the TBSD that people expect us to go on a run of form, that if continued would see us go very close to winning the league.

Realistically getting around 2ppg will be tough so 22 points should be a reasonable target. It would mean a 10 point improvement from the same time last season.

Expectations are obviously very high at the moment and that can only be a good thing.

[Sciatika]

I have changed my mind in line with my avatar. I think six wins and two draws. We will lose to sides we expect to beat (possibly due to an individual error) and win against some sides where we expect to lose.

Edited November 15 by Sciatika

[paulw66]

1 hour ago, martin1905 said:

It's easy to look at those fixtures and say we should get 25 plus points. That 2.3 ppg or more is title winning form. We haven't averaged that, throughout a whole season since Conte.

yes, but we're not suggesting we are going to do that over 38 games, but over a run of 11 "favourable" games. 

A run of 11 games with only one possible  top 4 finisher (assuming City, Arsenal and Liverpool make top 4) 

Edited November 15 by paulw66

[ROTG]

It’s a bit of fun and not a life and death decision, unless you have a clown phobia. 
 

@martin1905 we had our jest, as agreed halfway mark is the next revisit for our discussion. Feel free to predict without any retribution.  
 

ROTG

Edited November 15 by ROTG

[chara]

57 minutes ago, ROTG said:

It’s a bit of fun and not a life and death decision, unless you have a clown phobia. 
 

@martin1905 we had our jest, as agreed halfway mark is the next revisit for our discussion. Feel free to predict without any retribution.  
 

ROTG

Exactly..just a smile or two until the real football comes back...I notice no one else but me and ROTG is prepared to add a little "forum welfare" spice to the Challenge ?.... anyone ?

[Ham]

2 hours ago, ROTG said:

It’s a bit of fun and not a life and death decision, unless you have a clown phobia. 
 

@martin1905 we had our jest, as agreed halfway mark is the next revisit for our discussion. Feel free to predict without any retribution.  
 

ROTG

This sounds like a trap

 

😜

[Sciatika]

I'm in. If we get more than I have said then I'll put in £50. I will be so pleased I won't miss it.

[Ham]

Just now, Sciatika said:

I'm in. If we get more than I have said then I'll put in £50. I will be so pleased I won't miss it.

Same here. If we get more than I predicted I'll donate the same....... 

[Blue Moon]

Ok. Call me in. >27 points in the next 11 and £50 goes in the pot.

[xceleryx]

Not the challenge I was expecting upon opening the thread, kinda disappointed really. 

[chara]

39 minutes ago, xceleryx said:

Not the challenge I was expecting upon opening the thread, kinda disappointed really. 

Huh?...please explain mate,,in peace.

[carrd]

Honestly, 18 points tops. We’re only 4 points better than we were after 11 games last year, and that’s probably just down to some better luck and fewer injuries. Right now, we’re one of 11 teams sitting between 15 and 19 points.

Against good teams, we’re just not effective. But when we face weaker teams (and we’ve got 11 of those coming up), it’s like we’re playing as a Championship team trying to smash everyone —really open, taking risks, inviting the press, going all out for goals and the full 3 points. Feels like it’s only a matter of time before teams figure us out.

Way worse if Chilli gone AWOL.

[My Blood Is Blue]

3/3

[paulw66]

On 17/11/2024 at 18:00, carrd said:

Honestly, 18 points tops. We’re only 4 points better than we were after 11 games last year,

Like for like opponents, we're 7 points better off. 

Also, even it you take 4 points better off from 11 games, that's an additional 14 points over a whole season pro rata, putting us on 77 points. 

Our next 5 league games, against the equivalent opponents, yielded just 4 points last season. A chance for a real swing on a like for like basis. 

Edited November 25 by paulw66

[martin1905]

Where are you @ROTG 

That 'only4 points' better off you kept going on about has very quickly become 9.

16 points and 10th after 13 games last season.

25 points and 3rd this.

 

Edited December 1 by martin1905

[My Blood Is Blue]

On 23/11/2024 at 14:41, My Blood Is Blue said:

3/3

6/6

[Ham]

57 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

6/6

My 33pts prediction is still on.  

[martin1905]

10 point improvement over last seasons corresponding fixtures now.

Last season in the 12 games we played, not including Leicester for obvious reasons we won 3, drew 3 and lost 6.

This year won 6, drawn 4, lost 2.

However people would to look at it, corresponding fixtures people didn't like as it didn't fit their narrative, or number of games which now they won't like as we are 9 points better off and 3rd instead of 10th, the improvement is clear.

@ROTG @Bison @boratsbrother @Max Fowler where are you all? Why have you all gone so quiet?

 

[Ham]

30 minutes ago, martin1905 said:

10 point improvement over last seasons corresponding fixtures now.

Last season in the 12 games we played, not including Leicester for obvious reasons we won 3, drew 3 and lost 6.

This year won 6, drawn 4, lost 2.

However people would to look at it, corresponding fixtures people didn't like as it didn't fit their narrative, or number of games which now they won't like as we are 9 points better off and 3rd instead of 10th, the improvement is clear.

@ROTG @Bison @boratsbrother @Max Fowler where are you all? Why have you all gone so quiet?

 

Actually we're second, not third.  

 

[Proud-Blue]

1 hour ago, Ham said:

Actually we're second, not third.  

 

Third on alphabetical order believe it or not.