Luton Town 2 Chelsea 3

[Bones]

8 hours ago, Dwmh said:

1.  I'm certain xG does, but no so well as xG - xGA
Just as goals for correlate with winning but goal difference correlates better.
2.  Try this page:  https://understat.com/league/EPL/2023
You can order the league by goals, xg, or wins and see the correlation.  And check any other season.

3.    There are some issues with xG.  But far less than with what we always used to talk about on hte old site say 10 years ago.  XG is far superior to shots or shots on target as a measure,  It used to be that corners were the favourite measure of some.
XG is by far the least imperfect measure of attacking strength.

4.  The point is not to use xG as a kind of alternative game like winning the spotted red Tour de France jersey for being King of the mountains or being best team with an average age <=24.
The points are:  a) to identify which games we played better  or worse than the scoreline suggests
                                   b) to understand why the under or over performance (luck, finishing, saves,both ours and opponents)

because if we are going to start telling the manager what he should do (which we do nonstop) then we should at least base it on performances, not the randomness inherent in games.

5.  But not refereeing.  So if we hit the woodwork 5 times that will show up in high xG low goals and xG will match the spectators opinion of performance.
But if we have 3 marginal penalties denied and 3 goals scored but ruled out for offside (rightly or wrongly) that won't show up in xG at all despite most fans thinking we were very very unlucky.
Not that that would or should stop anyone talking about them.
 

Agree to pretty much everything. Thanks for the link, nice to confirm the correlation, it is probably the best metric we have so far, although it being not perfect hence your point 5. and it is exactly what I had in mind.

What is more in some matches we have a lot of unlikely to score shots which get assigned a very low xG value, so in reality it never looks like we are winning despite the possesion and those shots, but in xG metrics we dominate those.

[Bones]

8 hours ago, Dwmh said:

Yeah I had a rowing machine in my 40s and used it a lot - still use the one in the gym (but old Concept 2s are still better than the newer ones my gym has).  Struggle to get to 1000m now but I used to do 30 min pieces. 
After Uni I went to row in Greenwich on the Thames which could be seriously wet.  We sank once as the Bow Trader charged past us not looking (sister ship to the notorious Bow Belle)=
(they only row in the docks now).
Some Uni friends tried to persuade me out in a boat again and I said no way - I'd meet up for the beer but I'm not going in a boat again too wet and too unstable even on small rivers.  Machines for me.

Oh yeah! These machines are the best, tried so many different ones, but nothing beats good old Concept2. Would be curious to try this new Peleton though. Bloody expensive!

Oh dear! That is why I always preffered rowing in lakes, much more stable, fewer ships to worry about!

 

[Sabrina F.]

xG is merely a quantifiable way of what we see with the "eye test" - Liverpool beat Newcastle 4-2, that's a respectable scoreline for Newcastle but xG says Liverpool created 7 xG to Newcastle's 0.7 xG, anyone who's watched the game knows that's a lot closer to reality (obviously includes 2 pens). Liverpool were relentless and Newcastle were dreadful.

xG over one game can be misleading. If a team takes 30 shots for a total 1.8 or 2 xG, it means there were a lot of bad quality shots there, and the opposition team game planned for that and succeeded.

xG is to me the true democratization of football understanding for the masses. Managers use it, clubs use it, analysts use it, and football fans deserve to be educated about the game. In fact, for years all the football fans had was the obscure jargon of tactics nerds who couldn't explain the dynamics of a game in simple terms (and managers do explain their tactics to players in the most didactic way they can - a lot of players are often discovering a new language).

xG is about process over results. A true elite team has a process and doesn't rely on volatile luck. City is City because they've been dominant not just in results, but in chances created, chances conceded, possession recovered and so on. In fact, if one would look at xG mid-season, you would have predicted most of their titles even last year when they were 8pts off the top. 

Over one game, xG won't say much. Over a sample size, you get trends. A team can overperform its underlying metrics over one season, rarely more. Utd this season and last season have the same metrics, with the exception that this year, Rashford is no longer bailing them out by scoring 25 yarder shots on counters. They're pretty much the same team, results have caught up with their real performances.

So Luton is one game, and Chelsea don't often get beat this bad on xG, but the trend of conceding a lot of high quality chances has been there for the past 10 or so games. What we know now is that even bad teams like Luton can create chances against us, it's not just the very good teams, and that's not good.

[Bones]

2 hours ago, Sabrina F. said:

xG is merely a quantifiable way of what we see with the "eye test" - Liverpool beat Newcastle 4-2, that's a respectable scoreline for Newcastle but xG says Liverpool created 7 xG to Newcastle's 0.7 xG, anyone who's watched the game knows that's a lot closer to reality (obviously includes 2 pens). Liverpool were relentless and Newcastle were dreadful.

xG over one game can be misleading. If a team takes 30 shots for a total 1.8 or 2 xG, it means there were a lot of bad quality shots there, and the opposition team game planned for that and succeeded.

xG is to me the true democratization of football understanding for the masses. Managers use it, clubs use it, analysts use it, and football fans deserve to be educated about the game. In fact, for years all the football fans had was the obscure jargon of tactics nerds who couldn't explain the dynamics of a game in simple terms (and managers do explain their tactics to players in the most didactic way they can - a lot of players are often discovering a new language).

xG is about process over results. A true elite team has a process and doesn't rely on volatile luck. City is City because they've been dominant not just in results, but in chances created, chances conceded, possession recovered and so on. In fact, if one would look at xG mid-season, you would have predicted most of their titles even last year when they were 8pts off the top. 

Over one game, xG won't say much. Over a sample size, you get trends. A team can overperform its underlying metrics over one season, rarely more. Utd this season and last season have the same metrics, with the exception that this year, Rashford is no longer bailing them out by scoring 25 yarder shots on counters. They're pretty much the same team, results have caught up with their real performances.

So Luton is one game, and Chelsea don't often get beat this bad on xG, but the trend of conceding a lot of high quality chances has been there for the past 10 or so games. What we know now is that even bad teams like Luton can create chances against us, it's not just the very good teams, and that's not good.

Nice analysis.

Yes, there is a glaring issue with crosses/set pieces that has to be addressed.

At the same time, we're positive that we underperfoming in terms of actual points gained compared to our xG metrics for quite a while now. We should catch up at some point!!!

[Dwmh]

3 hours ago, Sabrina F. said:

xG is to me the true democratization of football understanding for the masses. ...

xG is about process over results. A true elite team has a process and doesn't rely on volatile luck. ....

Really good points.  Should be included in any encyclopedia definition of what xG is about.

[Dwmh]

3 hours ago, Bones said:

Oh yeah! These machines are the best, tried so many different ones, but nothing beats good old Concept2. Would be curious to try this new Peleton though. Bloody expensive!

Oh dear! That is why I always preffered rowing in lakes, much more stable, fewer ships to worry about!

 

I loved the one Kevin Bacon had in House of Cards with actual water being shunted around and actual water sounds.  Too expensive even if I had the space.  Looked at Peleton just now - they are using actors who don't know how to row - ugh
Half the attraction of a machine is the feedback it gives to tell you if you are pulling hard or not.

[ROTG]

10 minutes ago, Dwmh said:

Half the attraction of a machine is the feedback it gives to tell you if you are pulling hard or not.

Not sure i want a machine to tell me how good  i am at tugging

I'll get my coat

Edited January 5 by ROTG

[Bones]

2 hours ago, Dwmh said:

I loved the one Kevin Bacon had in House of Cards with actual water being shunted around and actual water sounds.  Too expensive even if I had the space.  Looked at Peleton just now - they are using actors who don't know how to row - ugh
Half the attraction of a machine is the feedback it gives to tell you if you are pulling hard or not.

I tried that one with the water being shunted around - looks and feels nice, however it constantly broke down with water spilling out and causing contstant repair issues for the owner. Also the way it calculates your pace is somehow different to Concept 2 and actual real life rowing, I got constantly frustrated never knowing what my actual pace is when working out.

Re: Peleton - that is exactly why our US businesses minded owners would love it 😂

[Ham]

7 hours ago, Dwmh said:

I loved the one Kevin Bacon had in House of Cards with actual water being shunted around and actual water sounds.  Too expensive even if I had the space.  Looked at Peleton just now - they are using actors who don't know how to row - ugh
Half the attraction of a machine is the feedback it gives to tell you if you are pulling hard or not.

Is this your way of cancelling Kevin Spacey?

[Mark Kelly]

26 minutes ago, Ham said:

Is this your way of cancelling Kevin Spacey?

It's  Ancelotti all over again. 

[Dwmh]

1 hour ago, Ham said:

Is this your way of cancelling Kevin Spacey?

whoops.  

[boratsbrother]

18 hours ago, kev61 said:

You'r enjoying the Zombie like performances at times?.

 

Yes, because football isn't, or at least shouldn't be just all about winning and playing good football all of the time.  If it was, then the vast majority of clubs and fans might as well pack the game up and start playing and watching something else.

For me it's about the ride/ journey of my tean through my lifetime which includes the lows as well as the highs and the mundane stuff in-between. I enjoyed it even when we truly crap in the second division, but enjoyed it in a different way to the way I enjoyed our great successes. I enjoyed watching us just trying to survive as a club at that time. 

In amongst the dross I'm also enjoying moments of high quality this season.  Those three goals we scored against Luton were as good a three goals we've scored in a game in a longtime! I enjoyed going out there and not being scared shitless of Man City. Playing well against Arsenal. Watching Gallagher blossom into a quality player. Seeing Palmer produce levels of class we haven't seen since primetime Hazard. The world class ball Colwill played to Mudryk for Mudryks first goal for us.  Mudryk starting to grow as a player. Gusto looking so  energetic  and  enthusiastic.  Petrovic looking like he's been here for years. Jackson is incredibly raw and awful at times, but there is definitely  potential there.

As I keep saying. There's a long way to go and there are sure to be more awful or dull  performances from us, but I'm seeing enough to think we are heading the right way. 

 

 

 

 

[chara]

@boratsbrother.....My feelings exactly.....without the lows where is the satisfaction and joy in the highs?

The agony of JT hitting the post to the ecstasy at DD equalising and the winning penalty...Eden running through the Arsenal defence for that exquisite  goal....so many great, miserable and as you say indifferent moments from way back in my Chelsea  past .... from Tommy Harmer's "privates" moment for promotion at Sunderland to Cole Palmer's ridiculously brilliant touch round the keeper last week...a trip to savour .

[kev61]

4 hours ago, boratsbrother said:

Yes, because football isn't, or at least shouldn't be just all about winning and playing good football all of the time.  If it was, then the vast majority of clubs and fans might as well pack the game up and start playing and watching something else.

For me it's about the ride/ journey of my tean through my lifetime which includes the lows as well as the highs and the mundane stuff in-between. I enjoyed it even when we truly crap in the second division, but enjoyed it in a different way to the way I enjoyed our great successes. I enjoyed watching us just trying to survive as a club at that time. 

In amongst the dross I'm also enjoying moments of high quality this season.  Those three goals we scored against Luton were as good a three goals we've scored in a game in a longtime! I enjoyed going out there and not being scared shitless of Man City. Playing well against Arsenal. Watching Gallagher blossom into a quality player. Seeing Palmer produce levels of class we haven't seen since primetime Hazard. The world class ball Colwill played to Mudryk for Mudryks first goal for us.  Mudryk starting to grow as a player. Gusto looking so  energetic  and  enthusiastic.  Petrovic looking like he's been here for years. Jackson is incredibly raw and awful at times, but there is definitely  potential there.

As I keep saying. There's a long way to go and there are sure to be more awful or dull  performances from us, but I'm seeing enough to think we are heading the right way. 

 

 

 

 

A very fine speech.I would have agreed with you 10 years ago.When you spend the amount of money we have on players you would expect a player to excel.

Let's get excited about Enzo and Caicedo? - let's get excited about Jackson?.The only player I'm excited about is Palmer.

You can obviously see multi million pound  baby steps,I don't,and even if I did....not enough imo.

[Ham]

8 hours ago, kev61 said:

A very fine speech.I would have agreed with you 10 years ago.When you spend the amount of money we have on players you would expect a player to excel.

Let's get excited about Enzo and Caicedo? - let's get excited about Jackson?.The only player I'm excited about is Palmer.

You can obviously see multi million pound  baby steps,I don't,and even if I did....not enough imo.

In the last 3 games Jackson has shown that whilst he's not a proper CF (yet), there's definitely a bit of a baller in there. Some fantastic creative play. 

There appear to be a number of current young players who rely on self confidence to be able perform to their potential. 

[Bison]

Caicedo is really good and has been performing well. It makes me cringe whenever I read or hear Chelsea fans criticising him.

He would look even better in a well-coached team where he isn't defending alone on an island but this is Pochettino's Chelsea so we shouldn't expect too much. 

[boratsbrother]

13 hours ago, kev61 said:

A very fine speech.I would have agreed with you 10 years ago.When you spend the amount of money we have on players you would expect a player to excel.

 

If that money was spent on proven, experienced talent, then I'd be agreeing with you, but it clearly wasn't!  Imho, it's unrealistic and unfair to expect instant success or significant improvement from such a young and almost completely unproven set of players.  Thinking we shouldn't have started a huge rebuild with so many young, unproven players is a different point altogether but a very fair opinion to hold.

 

[Dwmh]

25 minutes ago, boratsbrother said:

If that money was spent on proven, experienced talent, then I'd be agreeing with you, but it clearly wasn't!  Imho, it's unrealistic and unfair to expect instant success or significant improvement from such a young and almost completely unproven set of players.  Thinking we shouldn't have started a huge rebuild with so many young, unproven players is a different point altogether but a very fair opinion to hold.

it is a portfolio investment.  Which should be judged by portfolio outcome.  That is true.  So not fair to judge individual purchases.
But judged as a portfolio it seems to be doing badly.

 

[kev61]

On 06/01/2024 at 16:13, boratsbrother said:

If that money was spent on proven, experienced talent, then I'd be agreeing with you, but it clearly wasn't!  Imho, it's unrealistic and unfair to expect instant success or significant improvement from such a young and almost completely unproven set of players.  Thinking we shouldn't have started a huge rebuild with so many young, unproven players is a different point altogether but a very fair opinion to hold.

 

The crux of the matter is have we significantly improved as team?...I don't think we have.

If this xG thing  is mentioned much more I will squeam and squeam!.

The owners are primarily  to blame,but to use an analogy, a good chef can make a decent meal with basic ingredients.

We are being served up a combination of inedible swill and the odd decent fare.

[xceleryx]

32 minutes ago, kev61 said:

The crux of the matter is have we significantly improved as team?...I don't think we have.

If this xG thing  is mentioned much more I will squeam and squeam!.

The owners are primarily  to blame,but to use an analogy, a good chef can make a decent meal with basic ingredients.

We are being served up a combination of inedible swill and the odd decent fare.

Thought on this then, since you're allergic to xG and prefer cold hard facts?

All of which has been achieved with the youngest squad in the league, that's also propped up by having 39 year old Thiago Silva and only been together for the last 5-6 months. Not including the continued laundry list of injuries that've required shuffling of the remaining deck, on top of handling the pre-existing gaps the squad already had in general.

Edited January 8 by xceleryx

[kev61]

11 minutes ago, xceleryx said:

Thought on this then, since you're allergic to xG and prefer cold hard facts?

All of which has been achieved with the youngest squad in the league, that's also propped up by having 39 year old Thiago Silva and only been together for the last 5-6 months. Not including the continued laundry list of injuries that've required shuffling of the remaining deck, on top of handling the pre-existing gaps the squad already had in general.

We're tenth in the league after spending a fortune on players.We are no better off to last year.

The players are young granted,but I see no improvement.

It is a natural thing to praise things you hold dear even though deep down you know it doesn't work.

[xceleryx]

5 hours ago, kev61 said:

We're tenth in the league after spending a fortune on players.We are no better off to last year.

The players are young granted,but I see no improvement.

It is a natural thing to praise things you hold dear even though deep down you know it doesn't work.

You wanted to see improvement though, I've shown you factual information that showcases that. Now, it may not be transformative improvement that's propelled us to new heights, but it's improvement nonetheless.

[east lower]

5 hours ago, kev61 said:

We're tenth in the league after spending a fortune on players.We are no better off to last year.

The players are young granted,but I see no improvement.

It is a natural thing to praise things you hold dear even though deep down you know it doesn't work.

Selective sample period there, the end of Potter and Frank’s woeful time here. PR at its worst going on.

If you take the whole season, I wonder where it’s at?  He’s not good enough and Saturday was another example, woeful 60 minutes - Championship team go’s 1-0 down and loses their motivation and concentration, the one thing they had to hold onto having just been lost.

[paulw66]

28 minutes ago, east lower said:

Selective sample period there, the end of Potter and Frank’s woeful time here. PR at its worst going on.

If you take the whole season, I wonder where it’s at?  He’s not good enough and Saturday was another example, woeful 60 minutes - Championship team go’s 1-0 down and loses their motivation and concentration, the one thing they had to hold onto having just been lost.

Well, we haven't had one yet.

I don't understand the beef with Saturday. We won 4-0. Took a while to break them down. They never got near our goal

Edit - we are currently on targer (pro rata) for 53 points. Not enough, granted, but we got 44 last season, so a 20% increase. 

Edited January 8 by paulw66

[east lower]

36 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

Well, we haven't had one yet.

I don't understand the beef with Saturday. We won 4-0. Took a while to break them down. They never got near our goal

Edit - we are currently on targer (pro rata) for 53 points. Not enough, granted, but we got 44 last season, so a 20% increase. 

Taking a selective sample that proves a point that you want to try to prove your own view on the world, isn’t fooling educated people (that’s the club doing it, not aimed at anyone here).

Personally, and as always I am thankful of a win, Saturday included.  That performance on Saturday was woeful, you could add lethargic to the usual adjectives used to quite fairly describe a number of our performances this season. If you are able to spot what the coach is trying to do and how he is building a team identity, structure and way of playing then and with a amicable tone, please let me know  - because I can’t see what he’s up to and he’s had six months now. Watch Palmer on Saturday, completely isolated and even if he wanted/been instructed to play patterns he couldn’t do. That’s one of the reasons he had to take so many touches. A better Championship team has us goal/s down at half-time. Preston’s form is lamentable lately.
 

The coach set out his own expectations (and possibly the owners also?) at the start of the season and I think that between 44-60 points for the season wasn’t stated. Top four was and we’re probably not getting anywhere near enough points for that. If he can, then he’s done far better than I expected. He’s never been an elite manager and for me never will be. If as some state he’s being used as a longer term interim ala Pelligrini at Man City then ok, but I’d still expect more from him and the team then we’re getting.