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My Blood Is Blue

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On 23/08/2023 at 03:59, Morgs said:

Interesting points in amongst the sniping. 

I read with interest the views held by some members here regarding the planning of the club's moves and how, in the first part of the transfer window things all made sense but in the latter part there have been a few moves that make no sense. 

I am inclined to agree to some extent. I thought while I am waiting for my meeting I might look at the decisions the club has made this summer and see how many make sense and how many are an anathema. I'd have maybe looked at last Jan and last Summer as well but the issue with doing previous windows is that hindsight is always 20/20, and the club may not have had the facts in front of them at the time that we do now. Maybe one to revisit later on if this proves a useful exercise. 

Lets look at it chronologically instead of dividing up by ins and outs as this makes more sense in terms of logic. We wont include the players like Castillo, Haigh, Adegoke and the rest who were released. 

1st July 2023

OUT Xavier Simons, loan to Hull City (loan, no issue, makes sense)

OUT Charlie Webster loan to Heerenveen (loan, no issue, makes sense)

OUT Sami Tlemkani permanent to AEK Athens, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT Ethan Wady permanent to Millwall, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT Dujon Sterling permanent to Rangers, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT Sam McClelland permanent to St Johnstone, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT Ngolo Kante permanent to Al-Ittihad, free (contract ended, he wanted to go)

OUT Brian Fiabema permanent to Real Sociedad, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT Nathan Baxter permanent to Bolton, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT Derrick Abu permanent to Southampton, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

OUT RLC permanent to Milan, 16m (wanted to play and wasn't going to get in the side this season)

OUT Eduard Mendy permanent to Al Ahli, 18.5m (not good enough)

OUT Kalidou Koulibaly permanent to Al Hilal, 23m (wanted to play and wasn't going to get in the side this season)

OUT Mateo Kovacic permanent to Man City, 29.1m (time for a change, was a great fee)

OUT Kai Havertz permanent to Arsenal, 75m (time for a change, not good enough and was an amazing fee)

IN Diego Moreira, permanent from Benfica, free (exciting youngster, will go out on loan again)

IN Alex Matos, permanent from Norwich, free (exciting youngster, will go out on loan again)

IN Nicholas Jackson permanent from Villareal, 37m (great signing)

IN Christopher Nkunku permanent from Red Bull Leipzig, 60m (great signing)

10th July 2023

OUT Teddy Sharman-Lowe, loan to Bromley (needed a loan, no issue)

OUT Baba Rahman, permanent to PAOK, free (needed his situation resolved and a new start and endless loans)

5th July 2023

OUT Mason Mount, permanent to Man United, 64.2m (wanted to go, got a good fee)

6th July 2023

OUT Cesar Azpilicueta, Atletico Madrid, free (deserves his last payday, departs with blessings and good wishes)

11th July 2023

OUT David Datro Fofana, loan to Union Berlin (a bit raw and needed a Bundesliga loan so makes sense)

12th July 2023

OUT Dion Rankine, loan to Exeter City  (needed a loan, no issue)

13th July 2023

OUT Christian Pulisic, permanent to AC Milan, 20m (was definitely time to go)

16th July 2023

IN Angelo, permanent from Santos, 15m (very exciting youngster)

19th July 2023

OUT Ethan Ampadu, permanent to Leeds, 8.1m (clearly not fancied so fine to move, got a decent fee for him)

20th July 2023

OUT Omari Hutchinson, loan to Ipswich  (needed a loan, no issue)

21st July 2023

OUT Pierre Emerick Aubameyang, permanent to Marseilles, free (thank God for that)

27th July 2023

OUT Christos Kalogerakis, permanent to Anderlecht, free (sale, wasn't going to make it at Chelsea)

1st August 2023

IN Big Les Ugochukwu, permanent from Rennes, 27m (a hedge against not getting Caicedo or Lavia. Will likely go on loan to a Prem side to continue his development)

4th August 2023

IN Axel Disasi, permanent from Monaco, 45m (With Fofana's injury we needed a right footed centre-half and arguably one with pace and power so although we paid a big fee you can see why he was brought in)

5th August 2023

IN Robert Sanchez, permanent from Brighton, 23m (club didn't know Kepa was going on loan at that point but was rated enough to be brought in as our number backup)

7th August 2023

OUT Henry Lawrence, Standard, free (sale, club felt he wasn't going to make it at Chelsea although I'd have kept him for another year with a Championship loan as I think he has a lot of potential)

8th August 2023

OUT Angelo, loan to Strasbourg (loan out makes sense and was always the plan)

10th August 2023

OUT Gabriel Slonina, loan to KAS Eupen (with Sanchez coming in he needed a loan)

14th August 2023

OUT Kepa Arrizabalaga, loan to Real Madrid (if the player wants the move then you have to look at it but letting him go without a replacement is inexplicable and will remain so until we sign someone to take the number one jersey)

IN Moises Caicedo, permanent from Brighton, 116m (speaks for itself)

15th August 2023

OUT Cesare Casadei, loan to Leicester (loan made sense before Chukwuemeka's injury)

OUT Harvey Vale, loan to Bristol Rovers (kid needed a good loan and Bristol Rovers will be good for him)

18th August 2023

IN Romeo Lavia, permanent from Southampton, 62.1m (don't really understand it at this point)

19th August 2023

OUT Hakim Sadsack Ziyech, loan to Galatasaray (superb bit of business)

22nd August 2023

OUT Lewis Hall, loan to Newcastle (if the kid wants to go and doesn't want to stay and fight for his place then fair enough. good fee too.)

 

So from the above list we have Ugochukwu coming in August 1st, Kepa being allowed to leave on the 14th and Lavia coming in on the 18th as what I would class as "contentious"

IE: all the decisions in July and barring Big Les, for the first two weeks of Aug make logical sense and you can see why they were made. Accordingly, 100% of the contentious decisions have come in August and 66% of these - the majority - have come in the latter half of August, rising to 75% if we include Lewis Hall (I don't think it is contentious or illogical, but I can see why others may do). 

So yes, you can say there is a trend to inexplicable or illogical moves from the club as the summer has gone on. Part of this is due to the nature of the transfer window itself - you get the obvious stuff done first as these are the moves that have been in development prior to the window opening. Part of it has been a degree of "panic  moves" creeping in, forced or unforced. 

Of 44 moves in and out, in the region of 10% make no sense, objectively speaking. The Ugochukwu and Kepa questions will be put to bed once the club resolve them - i.e. a loan in the former and a proper replacement in the latter case. Failure to do either satisfactorily would be inexplicable indeed. 

Where things get interesting is the rumours and things we HAVE NOT done.  I have a list. 

 

* (Maatsen seemingly safe now Hall has gone, but) making it known that Gallagher and Chalobah are apparently for sale but not resolving things with either until it is too late to replace them if they choose to go.

* Failure to sign Olise and him going on to get a new Palace contract having apparently never wanted to come to Chelsea at all.  

* Bringing in Ugochukwu but not having a really good loan lined up for if we do sign Lavia and Caicedo, as has transpired. 

* Failure to sign a proper number nine to contest the striker spot with Jackson. 

* Failure to find a move/loan for Cucurella.

* Failure to sign a world class 'keeper to be our new number 1. 

* Failure to get Romelu Lukaku out of the club at any cost. 

 

In summary:

Charitably, we should by rights wait until the window closes before judging. Yes, we will end up over-paying for the late business we end up doing but that cannot be helped. 

What is clear to me that there are several key issues that are not easily explained and need to be dealt with by the club. I have faith they will be, but whether that happens in this window or in the coming ones is open to question.  Clearly, the accusations of "the club doesnt have a plan" or "they havent got a scooby" are wide of the mark - the point of my odd little list above was to demonstrate this is quantative and qualitative terms. They do have a plan and they do work logically. The list proves this. I believe these accusations come from a media determined to destabilise and criticise, although these doubts and inferences cannot fully be ruled out because of the six or seven remnant points above.

The club's business has been largely smart. Expensive yes, but they have gone about wholesale renewal of the playing staff in a fast, logical and decisive manner and generally it has been a successful summer. These guys do know what they are doing, with the proviso that we must take it on trust that the six or sevens issues we currently do not understand or have a satisfactory resolution on, will be resolved by the time the window slams shut. 

If they aren't, then accusations and finger pointing will continue with renewed fervour and with some justifcation. But the aggregate list of moves above does I hope demonstrate that the vast majority of the moves the club has made in and out, have logic and a sound reasoning behind them, and that they do fit within a broad strategy. We cannot see the plan, but we can get a decent impression of its facets and features based on the above. The club has trimmed the squad, moved on a lot of players who didn't want to be here and added a lot of quality in key areas. They have added pace and power and more physicality to stop us getting bullied quite so much. The average age of the squad has been dramatically reduced with young players of (we surmise/expect) a level of quality such that if they don't settle at Chelsea, we can move them on for big fees. To use a term Boehly would be familiar with, the portfolio risks have been addressed directly and the major risk factors have been reduced from catastrophic to just unpredictable/manageable.

The frantic buying is almost at an end now - we will be a much more frugal and "normal" club from this window onwards. The major surgery is all but done. Just a few final moves and we are set. I do believe that. 

On the basis that resolution of the six or seven remaining "questions" above would fall under these strategic measures, we would be churlish to suggest the club would not deal with them and is not doing so as we speak. 

Mistakes have been made and others that have been made but are not fully appreciated right now will come out this season (yes Mudryk....) but right now things are moving in a positive direction. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Just reread this excellent post...very interesting looking back and pretty spot on...the absolute "Titanic" proportion injury disaster list was something nobody could have foreseen although the potential was there but the sheer breadth of the list is beyond prophesy!

Well done Morgs..take a bow!

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On 02/05/2024 at 14:24, Sciatika said:

Enzo will be more athletic next season when he isn't playing in pain.

Wouldn't hold my breath. Hasn't been able to run since the day we signed him. 

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, johnnybozo said:

A pathetic return

In his first season, Drogba got 16. He may reach that. Before you complain, I am not saying he will be as good as Drogba. Just that the return is not "pathetic". Opinions vary obviously.

Edited by Sciatika
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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Bison said:

Wouldn't hold my breath. Hasn't been able to run since the day we signed him. 

Odd. I thought he played quite well last season against West Ham, Brighton, Fulham, etc. where he was MOTM. Opinions vary obviously.

Edited by Sciatika
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1 hour ago, Sciatika said:

Odd. I thought he played quite well last season against West Ham, Brighton, Fulham, etc. where he was MOTM. Opinions vary obviously.

He was visibly overweight when he arrived and didn't move particularly well in my opinion. To be fair to him he lost weight over the summer and looked leaner at the start of the new season but running power just isn't part of his game.

Enzo just  isn't athletic unfortunately. How we work around that is the big question. He's not going to come back and move about the pitch in a way he has never done in a Chelsea shirt. 

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Just a thought and would be keen to hear what others think... if we need to sell homegrown talent this summer, due to FFP (massive eye roll), I think James would be higher on my list than Gallagher to move on. I just think that we're going to go through the constant injuries for the rest of his career, and whilst he may be technically the better player, we will gain more and get more from Gallagher over the years. I think you can make a really strong argument for keeping Gallagher over James and also giving Gallagher the captaincy permanently.

Am I just wearing Conor tinted glasses?

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45 minutes ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

Just a thought and would be keen to hear what others think... if we need to sell homegrown talent this summer, due to FFP (massive eye roll), I think James would be higher on my list than Gallagher to move on. I just think that we're going to go through the constant injuries for the rest of his career, and whilst he may be technically the better player, we will gain more and get more from Gallagher over the years. I think you can make a really strong argument for keeping Gallagher over James and also giving Gallagher the captaincy permanently.

Am I just wearing Conor tinted glasses?

Don't necessarily disagree that selling James probably makes more sense from an availability perspective, no point being better if you can't play at least half a season with any regularity. Plus with Gusto showcasing his quality we'd have a ready to go replacement. However, if we did sell James his market would likely be limited because of what we'd likely want. We'd probably not entertain a domestic sale on such a player, so it would really only leave Real Madrid, PSG and Bayern as the only real financially capable sides right now. 

Not sure how much any of them would pay without seeing him string a period of games together again.

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23 minutes ago, xceleryx said:

Don't necessarily disagree that selling James probably makes more sense from an availability perspective, no point being better if you can't play at least half a season with any regularity. Plus with Gusto showcasing his quality we'd have a ready to go replacement. However, if we did sell James his market would likely be limited because of what we'd likely want. We'd probably not entertain a domestic sale on such a player, so it would really only leave Real Madrid, PSG and Bayern as the only real financially capable sides right now. 

Not sure how much any of them would pay without seeing him string a period of games together again.

Also Reece is on a long, new contract and would, I am guessing, be fairly resistant to leaving the club.

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A fit James is one of the top 2 or 3 players in his position in the world. There are dozens of Gallaghers available in terms of ability, just like this one will be when the transfer window opens.

Love Gallagher, don't want him gone at all, but for me it's a no-brainer to risk James never staying fit given the pay off if he does ... In the hypothetical scenario where one has to go, that is.

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10 hours ago, Bison said:

He was visibly overweight when he arrived and didn't move particularly well in my opinion. To be fair to him he lost weight over the summer and looked leaner at the start of the new season but running power just isn't part of his game.

Enzo just  isn't athletic unfortunately. How we work around that is the big question. He's not going to come back and move about the pitch in a way he has never done in a Chelsea shirt. 

Enzo showed his quality last season when he came in but, was in a no-win situation and was being asked to do too much. 

This season he also shows his quality in every game. When he gets the ball he has that quality to see things happening in front of him that only the top players see. I don't get why you hate him so much? 

It's true the team hasn't gelled this season but, there are numbers of factors to that. I'm of the belief that the central defence hasn't supported the midfield like it should do.

Enzo is not a problem - he is the sort of player that would be snapped up by Pep and Arteta and have him being the top performer week-in week-out.

A midfield of Caciedo, Enzo, Gallagher, Lavia and Chuck is good enough to compete with anyone. It's other area's, tactics and leadership that we're lacking.

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18 hours ago, My Blood Is Blue said:

Just a thought and would be keen to hear what others think... if we need to sell homegrown talent this summer, due to FFP (massive eye roll), I think James would be higher on my list than Gallagher to move on. I just think that we're going to go through the constant injuries for the rest of his career, and whilst he may be technically the better player, we will gain more and get more from Gallagher over the years. I think you can make a really strong argument for keeping Gallagher over James and also giving Gallagher the captaincy permanently.

Am I just wearing Conor tinted glasses?

No way would I sell James above Gallagher, he's different level to anyone else at the club, in the sense that he is genuinely one of the very best in the world.

Also the timing is just so off with him finally having surgery,  we have to hope it's fixed him and to sell him now when he is potentially fixed could prove disastrous. 

I don't think we will sell Gallagher because of FFP or PSR, there are so many other players we will sell first........

Lukaku, Kepa, Hall, Maatsen,  Broja, Ziyech,  Sarr won't be missed one bit and would surely, fetch as much as Gallagher plus get rid of a shit ton of wages.

Sterling, I'd imagine we would move on before Gallagher,  if possible. Then there's the untold players the new owners have bought that haven't, and most likely never will, kick a ball for the club.

There's a good argument that Gallagher would be one of the very last players we should sell.

So, I don't believe we need to sell Gallagher,  I think its lazy journalism but the problem we have is he's going into the last year of his contract. It will be very interesting and very telling if he signs an extension and what sort of terms he agrees, it will tell us an awful lot about our immediate, short term future and just how fucked we really are.

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19 minutes ago, martin1905 said:

No way would I sell James above Gallagher, he's different level to anyone else at the club, in the sense that he is genuinely one of the very best in the world.

Also the timing is just so off with him finally having surgery,  we have to hope it's fixed him and to sell him now when he is potentially fixed could prove disastrous. 

I don't think we will sell Gallagher because of FFP or PSR, there are so many other players we will sell first........

Lukaku, Kepa, Hall, Maatsen,  Broja, Ziyech,  Sarr won't be missed one bit and would surely, fetch as much as Gallagher plus get rid of a shit ton of wages.

Sterling, I'd imagine we would move on before Gallagher,  if possible. Then there's the untold players the new owners have bought that haven't, and most likely never will, kick a ball for the club.

There's a good argument that Gallagher would be one of the very last players we should sell.

So, I don't believe we need to sell Gallagher,  I think its lazy journalism but the problem we have is he's going into the last year of his contract. It will be very interesting and very telling if he signs an extension and what sort of terms he agrees, it will tell us an awful lot about our immediate, short term future and just how fucked we really are.

If we sell Gallagher we are in trouble.It says a lot about the owners.

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On 02/05/2024 at 12:17, paulw66 said:

It's not my money either. It's none of ours. That doesn't mean anyone here wants the club to waste money, not because it directly impacts our own bank account, but because it directly impacts the club's ability to spend elsewhere.

That's just a nonsense argument. 

 

It is if you cherry pick part of a larger paragraph. Would I rather have Grealish than:

Madueke, Mudryk, Sterling,  Disasi, Badiashille etc etc?

Yes, yes I would. Your suggesting the money will be better spent elsewhere...nothing suggests that. So I don't agree it's a nonsense argument. If buying Grealish meant they didn't buy someone from their spreadsheet then I'd be delighted. 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, martin1905 said:

No way would I sell James above Gallagher, he's different level to anyone else at the club, in the sense that he is genuinely one of the very best in the world.

Also the timing is just so off with him finally having surgery,  we have to hope it's fixed him and to sell him now when he is potentially fixed could prove disastrous. 

I don't think we will sell Gallagher because of FFP or PSR, there are so many other players we will sell first........

Lukaku, Kepa, Hall, Maatsen,  Broja, Ziyech,  Sarr won't be missed one bit and would surely, fetch as much as Gallagher plus get rid of a shit ton of wages.

Sterling, I'd imagine we would move on before Gallagher,  if possible. Then there's the untold players the new owners have bought that haven't, and most likely never will, kick a ball for the club.

There's a good argument that Gallagher would be one of the very last players we should sell.

So, I don't believe we need to sell Gallagher,  I think its lazy journalism but the problem we have is he's going into the last year of his contract. It will be very interesting and very telling if he signs an extension and what sort of terms he agrees, it will tell us an awful lot about our immediate, short term future and just how fucked we really are.

If Gallagher doesn't sign a new contract very soon, he's off

Edited by paulw66
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43 minutes ago, paulw66 said:

If Gallagher doesn't sign a new contract very soon, he's off

If he goes I doubt it would be anywhere near MM fee. 

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16 hours ago, paulw66 said:

If Gallagher doesn't sign a new contract very soon, he's off

Should they not offer him a new deal I hope Gallagher walks on a free to teach the sporting directors a lesson.

He should not, under any circumstances, let them force him out because they need to balance the books after so much unnecessary spending.

He's going to the Euros if healthy this summer. He can afford to gamble on himself next year and sign as a free agent elsewhere in 25/26.

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HOW CHELSEA SHOULD MAKE FRIENDS, INFLUENCE PEOPLE AND KEEP CONOR GALLAGHER

On the subject of FFP sales to balance the books lets have a little analysis of who is going and how much for while I wait for my DHL package to be delivered. 

Kepa will go, fee around 11m. Hall will go, 35m. Maatsen the same, 35m. Broja will go, fee around 15m. Malang Sarr and Ziyech will go on a free, Lukaku we'll get around 30m for.  Those are the obvious ones. So there you have circa 125-135m.

Figure on another 20m or so from a handful of Academy graduates being sold, plus Moreira and a few of the youngsters out of loan. Possibility we'll get 10m+ for Datro-Fofana as well. 

I'd reckon you could get 60-70m for Enzo no problem right now and the cynic in me suggests him being off in the summer could maybe be a main reason why he chose to have the groin surgery early so he would be fit for when the window opens.  As others have said up-thread, he isn't quick or tall enough for the Prem and that isn't going to change. I think we need to cash in. 

The club are in a tough spot as Cucurella, Chalobah and Gallagher are three players they would have been very keen to move on for nice big fees and all three are playing out of their skins right now and any decision to push them out is not going to go down well with the fans, and you sense with the playing staff either. Chalobah and Cucurella in particular look safe as replacing them with better quality is going to cost vastly more than we would get for them and we cannot afford to do that. 

So you look at the squad and try to see where you could improve - Sanchez would be an obvious one but we paid 30m for him and we will be lucky to get 20m tops for him, likely not even that. Nice lad, but clearly not Premier League level. Raheem Sterling has struggled and I think will be on his way, but who is going to pay his salary, much less a sizeable fee? If we cannot encourage him to go to Saudi, we'll struggle to move him on. Lets say we manage to get 20m for him. 

Badiashile looked nailed on for an exit just three weeks ago but has found some form from somewhere to throw that into some doubt, and like Chalobah is in a position where we already need to strengthen. We could get 25m for him but he would need to be replaced. If the club maybe think Bashir Humphreys is ready to take his left sided centreback spot as backup to Levi Colwill then he will go, and we know be has some admirers in Italy. 

Last one is Ugochukwu who I really like. I think he has something Caicedo and Lavia do not and if I was in charge I'd be keeping Big Les. Doubts over a lack of pace do persist, but he is tenacious, intelligent, hard working, good on the ball and superb in the tackle and is a threat from set pieces. He uses his size and physicality well and I do rate him. But, given that we need to trim the squad and the players we already have at DM, might the club be willing to move him on, given that we would at least get what we paid for him? Potentially another 30m there. 

In summary I would suggest we have enough there (circa 280-310m if we sell Kepa, Maatsen, Hall, Lukaku, Moreira, Broja, Sarr, Ziyech, Datro-Fofana, Enzo, Sanchez, Sterling, Badiashile and Ugochukwu plus a few of the youngsters who aren't going to make it) to get out of our FFP hole and leave enough to spend probably £200m (plus whatever the club wants to put in) on a top striker, a top centrehalf, a top left winger and a top keeper. 

The really big call there is moving Enzo out but not replacing him, but I think retaining Gallagher is more important and I think we have all seen enough from Chuwuemeka to say with surety that he is more than good enough to play a bigger role as an attacking number 8 or number 10. He's more mobile, quicker, more physical and scores more goals. Michael Golding from the Academy squad is extremely highly rated within the club and so are Cesare Casadei and Leo Castledine, so we aren't short on options. Another nuance may be the desire from Poch to play Lavia screening the back four and have Caicedo move up a bit, which would mean Gallagher playing the attacking 8 which is another meaningful option.  Bear in mind we also have Andrey Santos doing the business at Strasbourg as well who would be a superb addition to the squad if Enzo does go. 

 

 

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@martin1905 great post. But the thing is…and I hate saying this…because Reecey is by far my fave player but…he never plays! If this latest op works then brilliant news. But if it doesn’t - and I’m not optimistic - how can we justify keeping him on the wages he’s on, let alone selling Conor and/or Trev?

😔👀😔

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14 minutes ago, Chelsea_Matt said:

@martin1905 great post. But the thing is…and I hate saying this…because Reecey is by far my fave player but…he never plays! If this latest op works then brilliant news. But if it doesn’t - and I’m not optimistic - how can we justify keeping him on the wages he’s on, let alone selling Conor and/or Trev?

😔👀😔

That's the problem, we won't know if his surgery is successful for quite some time but I don't think it's an issue in this case. I have said for months that selling Gallagher isn't going to happen, if we did 'need' to like the media claim why haven't we?

There is a long list of players we will sell before Gallagher and the rumors are just media speculation. 

However, if he doesn't sign a new contract he will have to be sold and that is the real problem but also a different matter, he won't be sold before Lukaku,  Kepa, Maatsen, Hall, Ziyech  for PSR reasons but if they don't give him what he wants and deserves we will have no choice.

 

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